Project Brief

The objectives of the project are to analyse how security-related policies are developed in transitional societies of Georgia/Caucasus, to explore the nature and dynamics of strategic preferences and perceptions of security threats among political élites and the population; to write a research paper and develop a policy paper in the field of Conflict Prevention in Caucasus for the governments in the region and the international organizations dealing with regional security/stability issues

These developments and changes were to be studied as revealed through political statements, interviews, in public discourse and voting - resulting from rapidly changing geopolitical realities such as: aftermath of the anti-terrorist war in Afganistan against Taleban regime, accompanied by creation of global anti-terrorist coalition including former cold-war rivals, resulting among other developments in military presence of the US in former Soviet Central Asia; further EU and NATO expansion to the East and the official request of Georgia at Prague Summit to join NATO; the change by international community in reacting to regional crises from piecemeal approach to pre-emptive doctrine and comprehensive regional solutions; implications of the war and referendum in Chechnya; new assertive Russian international policies and changing relations between Russia, Europe and the USA; nuclear proliferation crisis in North Korea; and finally, war in Iraq. Important changes are taking place also in South Caucasus and Georgia, mostly related to recent and forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, but also reflecting the new frictions between external powers, launching of big Caspian pipeline projects, and the American military presence in Georgia. It is intended to investigate also the impact of international regimes and conflict prevention tools on local actors, and the impact of external policies and humanitarian/mediating interventions as geared to such arrangements, also the normative assumptions of actors both inside and outside of the specific region.

The study of military-strategic and political developments is aimed at better understanding of political processes of Georgian/Caucasian societies and conceptual changes going in their depth, on their role in establishing regional security, stability and co-operation. Another focus of the study is on how through globalisation and the impact of events in remote regions of the world, is formed the new understanding of internationally recognised codes of behaviour and of acceptable political options. Analysis is applied to studying various models of comprehensive solutions for achieving regional security and development objectives, and in particular on investigating feasibility and implications of a new evolving geo-strategic balances. These are analysed against the background of understanding of the security issues for the Caucasus among the political élites in the countries that play the most significant role in current events – i.e. political actors such as the USA, EU, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the states of Southern Caucasus – Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

An assessment is being conducted to articulate perceived obstacles to the development of regional security/stability instruments and arrangements — particularly the psychological and political obstacles — from both the Georgian and the regional perspectives. In such situations, it is essential to understand the psychological and historical issues that are intertwined with the more obvious economic, legal, and social issues. It was intended that the final outcome of the fellowship to be a book on regional security in the Caucasus, providing a synthetic analysis of the completed research and its conclusions. In addition, a number of publications are to be prepared on security issues from comparative perspective. The ultimate goal was and is supporting the development of long-term, strategic thinking and planing among top-level policy-makers in the region, empowering the society at large to follow, discuss, understand and participate in designing the country security related (and other important) policies.

Implementation

During the first part of my scholarship I was collecting primary information, analysing results of existing opinion surveys. Together with my colleagues, I have carried out a country-wide survey studying the attitudes of the population toward various policies, but also toward different strategic and foreign policy orientations and preferences. Parallel to this, I have interviewing local decision-makers and experts, also collecting information about western interpretation of security-related processes in the Caucasus.

Since August 2002 I was strongly involved in the preparation of the National Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Programme, to be signed soon by the President of the country. This document is of outstanding importance not only from the viewpoint of economic development, but also as a basis for security related developments and policies.

Also, during the spring 2003, I was involved in the preparation of the conceptual framework for the development of the South Georgian Region of Samtskhe-Javakheti (Open Society – Georgia Foundation), New Approach for IDP Self-Reliance and Vulnerability, and the regional Open Caucasus Foundation (OSGF).

Throughout the reporting period I have also travelled extensively, attending conferences and meeting experts, having visited London, Vienna, Munich, Budapest, Kiev, Tallinn, Timisoara, Yerevan, and Baku. I have met and discussed the security-related issues with a number of leading European experts on the Caucasus, as well as influential politicians and specialists of the region, such as Ursula Schleicher (European Parliament), Bruce Jackson (NATO Committee, USA), Charles Fairbanks (Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of the Johns Hopkins University - Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies), Stefan Mniszko and Kate Hamilton (Department for International Development, UK), Vanessa Muir-Smith (International Alert, UK), Tom Bentley (Executive Director, Demos, UK), Barri Sanders (University of New Mexico, TAOS), Gevork Poghosyan (Institute of Sociology, Yerevan), Tom de Waal (Institute for War and Peace Reportig), Tilman Allert (Institute of Socialisation and Social Psychology, University of Frankfurt), Sergey Kortunov (Vice-President, Foreign Policy Association, Moscow), Craig Oliphant (Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK), Tetiana Lebedeva (President, Ukrainian Association of Broadcasters), Bruno Coppieters (Free University of Brussels), Claus Schönig (Orient-Institut, Istanbul), Javad Efendi (Association of Psychologists of Azerbaijan), and some others.

During 2002-2003, following papers and publications have been prepared, or are under preparation:

1. Panel Survey of the Georgia’s Population: October 2002: Brief outline of results. (with Nana Sumbadze) IPS, Tbilisi, 2003 (In English and Georgian)

2. Around Georgian-Ossetian Relations, Iber-Iron, #1, January 2003 (in Russian)

3. Georgia’s unsteady step westward, Perihelion, European Rim Policy and Investment Council (ERPIC), December 2002, http://www.erpic.org/Georgia'sunsteadystepwestward.html

4. Some considerations related to the resolution of Georgian-Ossetian conflict, paper at the conference “Georgian-Ossetian Conflict: Analysis and Search for Regulation Paths”, Tbilisi, September 23, 2002.

5. Some aspects of interethnic relations in Georgia, Paper at the Conference "Framework Convention on Minorities Rights and Georgian Legislation", Tbilisi, 31 January – 1 February 2002 (in print)

A few other papers or chapters are in the process of preparation and will be presented/printed in nearest future.

v From Independence to Independence: 70 Years of Soviet Georgia, Bennett & Bloom Publ., London (draft text available at: http://rolfgross.tripod.com)

v Poverty in Mountainous Regions of Georgia. Paper at the 3nd Int. Conference of the REC Caucasus “Sustainable Development of Mountainous Regions of the Caucasus”, Tbilisi, July 2003

v Participation in international projects and networks as widening opportunities for participation in public debate. Paper at the All-Russian Congress of Political Scientists, Moscow, April 2003

v Impact of Globalisation on Reform Process in Georgia. And, Emergence of the New Community in Georgia and Its Social Impact. (in co-authorship with Nana Sumbadze). Papers at the 15th Annual Meeting of the Societies Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics (SASE) “Knowledge, Education, and Future” Aix-en-Provence, France, June 26 - 28, 2003

v What is Wrong with Georgia’s Democracy? Central Eurasia Studies Society (CESS), Fourth Annual Conference, October 2-5, 2003 Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.

v Dynamics of generational and gender roles in post-totalitarian society. Transition to adulthood in Georgia. (with Nana Sumbadze). Chapter in: Growing up in a changing world: Transitions to adulthood in a comparative perspective. Carmen Leccardi, Elisabetta Ruspini (eds.), Milan, 2003

v Brief History of Georgia, article for the "Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia" Encyclopedia, Europa Publications, Taylor & Francis Group, London, 2003 (updated version)

During the second half of 2003 I will prepare the text of the final publication, as well as the Final Report. By that time I will finalise and publish the book on Caucasian security.

I intend to continue visiting research centres and experts and participating in conferences and workshops, and travel more both in the region, visiting Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow, and the West - going to Aix-en-Provence, France; Cambridge, Massachusetts; Budapest, Hungary; and Xhanti, Greece.

I will continue my research work at the Institute for Policy Studies. My future work here will continue to focus around the topics of political culture, democratic transition and regional security arrangements. During the summer of 2003 I will be analysing obtained results from the second round of the country-wide panel survey and cross-checking first conclusions.

I believe that the achievement during my IPF fellowship can be judged by the number, and hopefully the quality, of policy documents and papers related to regional security issues that I was able to prepare and present. My other achievements include growth of professional knowledge, acquired information about up-to-date scientific developments, a number of very useful contacts, and better understanding of the political developments in the region and globally.

Summing up what has been presented above, I would like to say that although there are some achievements during the accounted period of time, in general I am not fully satisfied with the outcomes, especially from the viewpoint of theoretical, generic research. In remaining months I will try to catch up and meet these objectives.

George Tarkhan-Mouravi

Home Address: 4 G. Tsabadze St., Apt. 23, Tbilisi 0112 Georgia

Mailing Address: PO Box #158 (4), Tbilisi 0108 Georgia

Office: Institute for Policy Studies, 10 I. Chavchavadze Ave., Suite 39, Tbilisi

Tel: +995-32-347263 /-253847 (H); Tel: +995-32-912743 (B);

GSM: 995-99-915741; Fax: +995-32-220060

E-mail: vasitar@caucasus.net / gia@ips.ge